And Iran, Iran So Far Away

A little perspective is in order. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a media outlet or talking head that’s hocking any. 15 British sailors and marines have been held for a little over a week for what is essentially a territorial incursion dispute. Okay, that’s a breech of diplomacy, not casus belli. In January of 1968 the USS Pueblo and its crew were seized in international waters by North Korea. The Pueblo’s charter was intelligence collection, a most ungentlemanly undertaking. Yet somehow the guys in suits were able to jaw jaw jaw instead of war war war.

Six months prior to that the Israelis attacked the USS Liberty, an intelligence collection sister of the Pueblo. Though it’s been hotly contested there are strong indicators that the attack was intentional. In April of 2001 an intelligence gathering aircraft was forced down by China and the crew captured. Somehow we were able to avoid rabid international conflict. The prior three examples are units engaged in intelligence collection; the diplomatic equivalent catching a Peeping Tom watching your wife shower.

The media would love nothing more than a shooting war with Iran. A whole new dimension of strife to highlight and accusatory fingers to subtly point. Oil speculators are enjoying it because its grants license to further play with the price of crude. (Most financial analysts that specialize in the energy will allow that there is a $10 to $15 per barrel mark up on prices due to ‘terrorism concerns’ and ‘diplomatic uncertainty’.) Realistically, Iran is three times the size of Iraq in land and population. The most optimistic of military planners and plans would come up short of anything that could be called a win or even a success. Their leadership boils down to an apocalyptic theocracy. Raining high explosives within their borders would simply fulfill their deepest fantasies. It would also grant them instant hero status in the Muslim world, which currently views itself as locked in a righteous struggle with anyone that doesn’t think like them. Everybody needs to take a few deep breaths and remember that time is on our side. The longer this goes on the dumber Iran looks.

Ares